In case the report from Variety (and now Blogcritics too) caused any confusion: no, season two isn't in the bag yet. None of the gazillion press releases SyFy put out at Paley this week mentioned anything about the show getting picked up for a second season.
From SCI FI Wire:
SCI FI Wire pulled Moore aside last night at Syfy's upfront session in New York City and asked him what it will take to bring about a Caprica renewal. His reply? It boils down to the same two things to which it always boils down, ratings and money.
"It's an expensive show for Syfy, for a basic cable show, and the ratings are not gangbusters, but the ratings have been ticking up and we're building momentum," he said. "It's been critically well received, so there's a good buzz on the show. It adds a lot of prestige to the network, but the network also has its own business people that have to figure out a cost analysis on it. I feel like we're gonna get it. I always felt like we were gonna get it on Battlestar. We'll just have wait and see."
When must the decision be reached?
"I think ultimately it comes down to when the actors' contracts come due," Moore replied. "That's the real trigger, and I don't think those are due until August. However, I think that the other factor is [the network's] schedule and when they'd want the show to be on the air. So they would probably pull the trigger before that in order to start production in time to get the show on the air for their schedule."